Cairn Estate and Letting Agency

Scottish Property Prices and the EU Referendum – The Potential Implications

The 23rd June marks an important event – the EU referendum. If you’re a seasoned property investor, or simply looking to move home in the future, it makes good sense to find out what will happen to property prices in Scotland if the UK remains in the EU – and what the outcome is likely to be if the majority vote to leave.

Here’s an impartial guide to fill you in on the details.

Scottish Property Prices and Brexit

If the UK leaves the EU, this increases uncertainty in terms of investment – which in turn, will impact house prices across the country. Poll results released by KPMG reveal that two-thirds of large-scale property investors believe Brexit will result in less investment in UK properties, and this may drive prices down.

Less investment on the market will impact various aspects of the property market. Reduced investment in property companies, for example, may mean less new houses are built; which in turn, could exacerbate the current housing crisis. Greater uncertainty may mean reduced numbers of property purchases, which will lower prices across the country. Good news for first-time buyers, perhaps – but not such welcome news for those looking to sell their houses.

Of course, it’s difficult to predict with any confidence how long this period of uncertainty will last – if indeed it occurs at all. However, if recent figures in the UK are anything to go on, it seems likely that property prices will be adversely impacted – at least for the foreseeable short-term future.

Driving Another Scottish Referendum?

An EU exit may also trigger another Scottish Referendum – and if the UK stands alone outside of the EU, it seems much more likely that Scotland may vote for independence and re-join the EU as a separate country.

The changes would affect mobility between Scotland and England – which may see less English home-buyers investing in property over the border. How this will affect the property market as a whole in Scotland is difficult to tell – but it may serve to reduce property prices, at least temporarily.

The Outcome of a ‘Stay’ Vote

What would happen if the UK voted to remain in the EU? On the face of it, you might expect nothing to change too significantly. However, the referendum itself has shaken many industries across the country, and the property market is no different. It may take some months for investors to regain confidence in property buying in Scotland – especially if there’s discordance among the government.

Guy Grainger, chief executive of JLL, commented that property investment volumes could ‘still fall in 2016’, regardless of the outcome of the referendum. He also adds that pent-up demand could be deferred to the end of the year, when the UK and Scotland may experience a sudden surge in property purchases.

Buying Property After the Referendum

Although it may seem wise to wait until after the referendum to make an investment decision, you may actually end up saving money on your purchase – if you cash in on the uncertainty, which is driving prices down across the country.

To find out more about selling your property in Scotland, simply get in touch with our team today.